Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#644 Cleveland East Technical (0-4) 72.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#105 of 107 in Division III
#24 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 8-43 A #225 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 16 (77%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-42 A #287 Wickliffe (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 16 (80%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 12-14 A #652 Cleveland John F Kennedy (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-45 A #67 Cleveland Glenville (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 41 (99%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #438 Cleveland John Marshall (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #706 Cleveland Lincoln West (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #604 Cleveland Collinwood (0-5 D3 R9), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #627 Cleveland John Adams (1-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 1 (50%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#47 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 77
Projected record 2-6
2.87 Harbin points (divisor 77)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-4%, 1W-32%, 2W-44%, 3W-19%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
16% LWWW 4.98 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
3.8% LLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% LWLL 0.69 pts, out
22% LWLW 2.87 pts, out
17% LWWL 2.80 pts, out
3.9% LLLW 1.46 pts, out
2.9% LLWL 2.12 pts, out
2.6% LLWW 3.71 pts, out
(7% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 73.8 (0-3, #637, D3 #105) out
W3: 83.0 (0-2, #565, D3 #98) 1% , proj. out
W2: 85.1 (0-1, #551, D3 #97) 2% (bubble if 6-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 83.2 (0-1, #567, D3 #99) 1% , proj. out
W0: 87.3 (0-0, #551, D3 #96) 4% (bubble if 6-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 85.9 (5-5)