Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#627 Cleveland John Adams (1-3) 74.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#108 of 108 in Division II
#27 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 12-22 H #523 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 26-49 A #499 Conneaut (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 9 (67%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 12-49 A #255 Lyndhurst Brush (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 34 (96%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 54-6 A #706 Cleveland Lincoln West (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 20 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #496 Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #67 Cleveland Glenville (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 39 (99%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #438 Cleveland John Marshall (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #503 Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #644 Cleveland East Technical (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 1 (50%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#107 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 86
Projected record 2-7
2.50 Harbin points (divisor 86)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-26%, 2W-46%, 3W-23%, 4W-4%

Best realistic scenario
4.6% LLWLW 6.42 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
26% LLLLL 0.61 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
28% LLLLW 2.50 pts, out
8.5% WLLLW 5.15 pts, out
7.1% WLLLL 3.78 pts, out
6.3% LLLWW 4.62 pts, out
5.8% LLLWL 3.25 pts, out
4.6% LLWLL 5.17 pts, out
(8% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 75.4 (1-3, #627, D2 #108) out
W3: 76.3 (0-3, #622, D2 #108) 1% , proj. out
W2: 74.5 (0-2, #638, D2 #107) out
W1: 76.0 (0-1, #637, D2 #107) 1% , proj. out
W0: 81.1 (0-0, #611, D2 #108) 1% (bubble if 6-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 71.3 (2-8)