Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#496 Cleveland John Hay (1-4) 89.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#93 of 107 in Division III
#19 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-28 A #216 Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-41 H #255 Lyndhurst Brush (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 17 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 8-12 A #370 Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-14 H #438 Cleveland John Marshall (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 19-6 H #604 Cleveland Collinwood (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #627 Cleveland John Adams (1-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #503 Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #706 Cleveland Lincoln West (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #652 Cleveland John F Kennedy (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #67 Cleveland Glenville (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 33 (97%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#90 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 97
Projected record 4-6
6.32 Harbin points (divisor 97)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-2%, 3W-18%, 4W-48%, 5W-31%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
31% WWWWL 8.72 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
9.0% LLWWL 4.49 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
32% WLWWL 6.22 pts, out
8.9% LWWWL 6.94 pts, out
6.5% WLWLL 4.54 pts, out
6.4% WWWLL 6.99 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 89.1 (0-4, #504, D3 #94) 1% , proj. out
W3: 91.2 (0-3, #481, D3 #93) 1% , proj. out
W2: 91.8 (0-2, #481, D3 #93) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 93.0 (0-1, #467, D3 #92) 8% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 98.2 (0-0, #417, D3 #85) 19% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 95.9 (4-5)