Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#634 Fayetteville (4-1) 73.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#92 of 110 in Division VI
#24 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 46-0 H #709 Manchester (2-3 D7 R27), pick: W by 16 (78%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 60-0 A #716 Dayton Jefferson Township (0-5 D7 R28), pick: W by 25 (89%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 30-8 H #702 Portsmouth Notre Dame (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 14 (77%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 58-56 H #701 Cincinnati Hillcrest Academy (0-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 25 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 8-42 A #417 Batavia (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #560 Batavia Clermont Northeastern (3-2 D5 R20), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #686 Sabina East Clinton (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #584 Williamsburg (1-4 D6 R24), pick: L by 3 (58%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #521 Blanchester (0-5 D5 R20), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #554 Bethel-Tate (1-4 D5 R20), pick: L by 10 (71%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#108 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 97
Projected record 6-4
7.10 Harbin points (divisor 97)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-8%, 5W-30%, 6W-37%, 7W-20%, 8W-5%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 8.99 (6.26-12.80) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 11.09 (8.56-13.56) 5% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.8% WWLLW 9.40 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
8.0% LLLLL 4.08 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LWLLL 4.79 pts, out
11% LWWLL 6.58 pts, out
7.5% WWLLL 7.61 pts, out
5.5% LWLLW 6.73 pts, out
5.1% LLWLL 5.82 pts, out
5.0% WWWLL 9.30 pts, out
(40% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
51% Coldwater (5-0)
31% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
16% Mechanicsburg (5-0)
2% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 74.7 (4-0, #631, D6 #91) 3% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 79.0 (3-0, #600, D6 #84) 10% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 76.4 (2-0, #621, D6 #85) 6% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 76.6 (1-0, #632, D6 #93) 8% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 76.9 (0-0, #641, D6 #93) 7% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 74.5 (5-5)