Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#630 St Bernard-Elmwood Place (1-4) 74.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#91 of 110 in Division VI
#23 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 39-0 H #660 Cincinnati Shroder (0-5 D4 R16), pick: L by 15 (77%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 20-53 A #554 Bethel-Tate (1-4 D5 R20), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 6-7 H Bellevue KY (4-1 D7)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-17 A #560 Batavia Clermont Northeastern (3-2 D5 R20), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Sep 22 (W5) L 26-30 H #524 Cincinnati Summit Country Day (3-2 D5 R20), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #665 Hamilton New Miami (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #710 Cincinnati College Prep (0-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 13 (W8) A #691 Cincinnati Clark Montessori (0-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 20 (W9) H #577 Miamisburg Dayton Christian (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 27 (W10) A #657 Lockland (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 1 (52%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#97 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 97
Projected record 4-6
5.00 Harbin points (divisor 97)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-5%, 3W-19%, 4W-37%, 5W-30%, 6W-9%

Best realistic scenario
8.8% WWWWW 9.10 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
2.9% LWLLL 1.73 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
13% WWWLW 6.07 pts, out
10% WWWLL 4.49 pts, out
10% LWWLW 4.54 pts, out
7.0% LWWLL 2.85 pts, out
6.7% WWWWL 7.46 pts, out
5.8% LWWWW 7.57 pts, out
(35% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 72.8 (1-3, #646, D6 #97) 1% , proj. out
W3: 74.5 (1-2, #636, D6 #92) 2% , proj. out
W2: 74.8 (1-1, #636, D6 #92) 10% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 77.9 (1-0, #616, D6 #87) 28% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 68.2 (0-0, #683, D6 #108) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 66.0 (3-7)