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Rankings
#90 of 107 in Division 7
#23 of 26 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #73 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D7 (-390 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 47-0 A #707 Vanlue (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 52
08/29 W 38-28 H #679 Mathews (1-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 46
09/05 L 47-14 A #537 Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 35 (3%), perf. rating 27
09/12 L 41-14 H #588 Valley Christian School (2-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 27 (5%), perf. rating 22
09/19 A #575 Columbiana (1-3) D6 R21, pick: L by 30 (3%)
09/26 H #347 United (3-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 45 (1%)
10/03 A #621 Southern (Salineville) (1-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/10 H #532 East Palestine (4-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/17 H #617 Lisbon David Anderson (2-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/24 A #677 Wellsville (0-4) D7 R25, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.10 ( 1.85- 9.75) 38% in, 6% home, proj. out (#7-out), Monroeville (2-2) 18%
Lose: 2.15 ( 1.10-12.60) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Monroeville (2-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 5.48 ( 3.95- 8.60) 86% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Monroeville (2-2) 21%
(11%) 4W: 3.95 ( 2.15- 8.55) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), East Palestine (4-0) 23%
(38%) 3W: 2.50 ( 1.45- 6.35) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
(48%) 2W: 1.80 ( 1.10- 3.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLWLWW: 5.05 ( 3.95- 6.60) 81% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Monroeville (2-2) 23%
( 1%) LLLWLW: 5.03 ( 3.55- 6.60) 58% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), East Canton (4-0) 20%
( 5%) LLLLWW: 3.95 ( 2.90- 5.85) 21% in, proj. out (#10-out), East Palestine (4-0) 26%
( 3%) LLLLWL: 3.30 ( 2.20- 5.10) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out), East Canton (4-0) 23%
( 3%) LLWLLW: 3.20 ( 2.15- 4.75) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), East Palestine (4-0) 50%
( 2%) LLWLLL: 2.85 ( 1.80- 4.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Malvern (2-2) 50%
(31%) LLLLLW: 2.15 ( 1.45- 4.80) out
(48%) LLLLLL: 1.80 ( 1.10- 3.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 33.2, #680, D7 #90), 6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 32.8, #677, D7 #88), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (2-0, 31.9, #677, D7 #89), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 27.7, #685, D7 #92), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 17.8, #698, D7 #98), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 15.8